Barley prices in Ukraine are under pressure from increasing supply of the new crop

The harvesting of winter barley has already begun in southern Ukraine, and the first harvest results indicate a fairly high yield compared to the previous season. The increase in the supply of the new crop is increasing pressure on export prices and creating bearish sentiment in the market.

An additional factor in the price decline is the presence of significant barley stocks among domestic consumers. Processing plants have practically covered their current needs, so domestic demand has significantly decreased at the end of the season. As a result, export demand is becoming the main driver of pricing in the market.

The resumption of shipping in the Persian Gulf region has not yet led to increased purchases by traditional buyers of Ukrainian barley in the Middle East. Instead, traders have focused on selling the first batches of the new crop to China.

During the past week, there has been a revival of forward sales. Some farmers have begun to actively fix prices at around UAH 10,300/t with delivery to the port, seeking to obtain working capital at the beginning of the harvest. Traders have also intensified purchases, expecting an increase in grain supply in the coming weeks.

Under the pressure of the new harvest, export demand prices for feed barley in Ukraine have decreased by 100–150 UAH/t in the last week and currently stand at 10,000–10,200 UAH/t or $195–200/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

The malting barley market also shows a decrease in buyer activity. Over the week, purchase prices decreased by 100–200 UAH/t to 10,700–11,000 UAH/t with delivery to the factory.

Weather conditions in Ukraine remain favorable for the formation of both winter and spring barley crops. At the same time, the market’s attention is gradually shifting to weather risks in other producing countries. According to weather forecasters, several heat waves may hit Europe in the coming weeks, which could negatively affect the yield of spring barley and fodder corn. If these risks are confirmed, prices for fodder barley may find support in August-September.

Market participants are paying particular attention to Australia. Due to a lack of moisture during the sowing campaign and the beginning of the El Niño phenomenon, which is traditionally accompanied by a reduction in precipitation in the region, the prospects for the Australian barley harvest are deteriorating.

According to the official ABARES forecast, barley production in Australia in 2026/27 MY will decrease to 14 million tonnes compared to a record 16.3 million tonnes in 2025/26 MY. If dry conditions persist over the coming months, this could be one of the key factors supporting the global barley market in the new season.

Tags: Ukraine, barley, prices