Australia’s winter crop output to fall 8%, while canola hits record high

Australia’s winter crop production in 2026/27 is forecast to decline by 7.9% from the previous season to 62.9 mln tons. However, output would still remain 2.6% above the five-year average, according to Rabobank.

The largest decline is expected in wheat production, which is forecast to fall by 13.3% to 31 mln tons. Barley output is projected to decrease by 1.2% to 16.5 mln tons.

At the same time, canola production is forecast to reach a record 8.1 mln tons, up 5.3% year on year. The larger oilseed crop will therefore partly offset lower production of the main grains.

Conditions differ sharply across the country. South Australia’s winter crop is forecast to surge by 43.7% to a record 12.44 mln tons, supported by favorable moisture levels and strong yields. In Queensland, however, output could fall by 47.6% to 2.03 mln tons due to significantly below-average rainfall.

Higher grain prices, partly supported by geopolitical risks to global trade, are providing some relief to Australian growers. At the same time, high costs for fertilizers, diesel, crop protection products and freight continue to squeeze producer margins.

Tags: wheat, rapeseed, winter crop, Australia, canola