Australian wheat prices fall as Black Sea competition intensifies in Asian markets

According to S&P Global Platts, Australian Premium White wheat fell by $9/mt from the beginning of June to $273/mt by June 30, while Australian Standard White wheat declined by $6/mt to $268/mt. Widespread rainfall since late May has significantly improved crop conditions across major grain-producing regions, boosting expectations for the 2026/27 harvest.

The weaker Australian dollar, which lost around 3.3% against the U.S. dollar during June, also contributed to lower export prices. At the same time, growers on Australia’s East Coast have become more willing to sell old-crop stocks as concerns over the potential impact of El Niño on the new season have eased thanks to continued favorable rainfall.

Market participants also noted that diesel fuel and fertilizer supplies have stabilized following easing tensions in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, many farmers remain reluctant to sell wheat at current price levels because they purchased production inputs earlier this year at significantly higher prices.

Across Asia, buyers are increasingly waiting for new crop supplies from Canada and the Black Sea region. Although production prospects remain favorable, export offers have not yet fallen sharply due to harvest delays in Ukraine and southern Russia, as well as slow new-crop selling by farmers.

In Canada, the main harvest is also expected to begin several weeks later than usual because of delayed planting and wet weather in key producing provinces. Exporters are therefore taking a cautious approach to forward sales, as old-crop supplies have largely dried up and accumulating sufficient new-crop stocks remains uncertain.

Low corn prices are also reducing regional demand for feed wheat, making it less competitive in livestock feed rations. Meanwhile, China’s wheat harvest is nearly complete, but rainfall has affected grain quality in some producing regions, potentially supporting imports of medium-protein milling wheat, particularly from Australia. During the third quarter, Asian demand is expected to focus on medium-protein wheat from the Black Sea region and high-protein Canadian wheat, both of which are currently priced more competitively than Australian supplies.