Australia: Mixed ideas about Victoria, South Australia hold sway

Mixed conditions in south-eastern Australia are weighing on ideas about new-crop pricing and volume now that the new financial year has arrived.

With the Northern Hemisphere harvest weighing on global values, bids being shown to growers in Queensland and the northern half of New South Wales are not seen as attractive.

In South Australia, Victoria, and southern NSW, the season is yet to consolidate, and crops are mostly short and late.

This is keeping the fodder shortage at front of mind, as livestock prices remain buoyant, and the chronic shortage of available hay prevails.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Crops in Qld and central and northern NSW are generally in good to excellent condition, with above-average yields well and truly possible.

Many growers have full silos, and bunkers as well, but are in no hurry to sell at current values which they see as unimpressive.

Trade sources say consumers need to complete their August-September coverage, and have bought little new crop.

“Consumers tell us they’re comfortable, but they keep on asking questions,” one trader said.

Smithfield Cattle Co commodity buyer Brett Carsburg said growers were trying to market some of their current crop, but were struggling to accept the prices on offer.

“Northern NSW and Queensland is the best it’s ever been; things look great,” Mr Carsburg said.

Following on from the Northern Hemisphere wheat harvest, which is shaping up to be a big one, price pressure from the local harvest is expected, provided growers decide to let volume go off the header.

“The market might soften through harvest period but post harvest, it might firm, depending on conditions in the south.”

As happened last year to a small degree, some growers may opt to cut crops for hay or silage if southern graziers are still chasing fodder in spring.

“This will all be driven by weather in the south, and the next four to six weeks will tell us.”

“In the next three or four weeks. If there’s no follow-up rain, and nothing up on the forecast after that, then we’ll know.”

Primary Industries and Regions SA this week released its forecast for SA’s new-crop wheat production at 4.48 million tonnes (Mt), up from 2.74Mt harvested in 2024-25, and barley at 2.08Mt, up from 1.24Mt last season.

Speaking with Grain Central yesterday, Grains Research and Development Corporation chair and Mallee grower Sharon Starick said SA’s season needs to be kind for it to produce a good crop after a late and fitful start.

“Parts of the state’s crop have germinated; in some cases, it’s patchy, and in some cases it’s very late,” Mrs Starick said.

“It’s very variable; overall, in the grain-producing areas across South Australia, we need everything to fall into place from here on in.”

While the season is consolidating for growers in Victoria’s Wimmera and Western District, conditions in much of the Vic as well as the SA Mallee are mixed.

Wilken Grain trader Andrew Kelso said current-crop barley supplies were tight, but wheat was still readily available.

New-crop sales have been limited because of the fitful start to the season.

In the current-crop market, consumers have plenty of grain available to them, mostly out of the bulk-handling system, as SA and Vic prices continue to trade above export parity due to drought demand.

“Everyone’s a bit nervous about how late the crops are,” Mr Kelso said.

“There is concern about crops being very small at the moment.”

“There’s topsoil moisture, but we’ll need more rain to get subsoil moisture.”

Just about all dry-sown crops have germinated in SA, Vic, and southern NSW, and most have had follow-up rain.

“The fact that it’s rained is the real positive.”

For those with sheep, beef cattle, and dairy herds to feed, the quest for supplementary feed is far from over.

Hay from as far afield as Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Qld continues to roll into drought-affected regions, and imported palm kernel expeller, as well as soymeal, is supplementing what is available domestically.

Cutting of hay in Vic and SA looks like being later than normal to reflect the late germination of fodder crops planted in most areas.

If lamb, sheep, and cattle prices remain strong, and spring pastures are slow to regenerate, mixed farmers are likely to graze out some of their crops planted for grain, or for dual-purpose use.

Tags: harvest, barley, wheat, yields, crop, sorghum, Australia