Argentina soybean exports forecast to rise to multi-year high
Argentina is projected to export 8.2 million tonnes of soybeans in 2026, up 5% from the previous year and marking the highest volume since the 2019-20 season. The forecast was published by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture in its January report.
The increase in exports has been supported by the trade conflict between China and the United States, which prompted China to shift a large share of its soybean purchases to Brazil and Argentina. However, the recent agreement between China and the US to resume agricultural trade — including China’s pledge to import 12 million tonnes of US soybeans this year and 25 million tonnes annually over the next three years — could reshape global trade flows.
According to the FAS, Argentina’s outlook for whole soybean exports depends largely on broader US-China trade relations rather than on domestic production or market conditions. Any change in trade dynamics between the two major economies could directly affect Argentine export volumes.
Despite a projected year-on-year decline, Argentina’s soybean crop for the 2025-26 marketing season is expected to reach 47.5 million tonnes, remaining above the five-year average. The FAS estimates that farmers harvested about 50.5 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season.
The anticipated decline is partly due to planting delays caused by excessive rainfall, but a more significant factor has been farmers’ planting decisions. Producers are expected to shift more acreage back to corn relative to soybeans compared with the previous season.
The FAS said Argentina’s recent reduction in soybean export taxes by 2 percentage points, to 24%, is unlikely to significantly influence planting decisions this season. Meanwhile, soybean crush for 2025-26 was revised upward to 43 million tonnes on strong margins and solid meal demand. Argentina is expected to retain its position as the world’s leading soybean meal exporter, with shipments forecast at 29 million tonnes.
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