Alternative routes for Ukrainian grain face EU rail bottlenecks
The European Rail Freight Association (ERFA) has warned of serious capacity constraints across the EU rail network due to simultaneous infrastructure works, line closures, inadequate diversionary routes and poor coordination between countries. The disruptions are already affecting grain and other agricultural flows, as well as ports and terminals.
A key problem is that the formal availability of an alternative route does not guarantee sufficient capacity. On some diversionary routes, trains are limited to 1,200 tons and 535 metres in length, while trains on the Romanian Vidin–Golenti–Craiova section can travel at only around 30 km/h due to poor infrastructure conditions. The Kardam–Negru Voda route has a maximum weight limit of 1,000 tons, restricting its use for intermodal trains.
Cross-border delays are adding to the pressure. According to ERFA, border transit times can reach 20 hours in some cases. Longer diversionary routes and delays increase wagon turnaround times, require additional locomotives and drivers, and ultimately raise the overall cost of rail freight.
For Ukraine, these constraints are particularly important as agricultural exports are increasingly redirected towards western borders. Ukraine aims to increase agricultural transit through Poland to 600 thsd tons per month, while Ukrzaliznytsia estimates the theoretical additional capacity for grain shipments via the Polish route at around 425 thsd tons per month. However, using this potential would require more trains, round-the-clock border controls and sufficient capacity at Polish ports and terminals.
Another constraint is the difference in rail gauges. As of July 31, Ukrzaliznytsia had 375 bogies available for switching wagons from the 1,520 mm gauge to the European 1,435 mm gauge, with all of them already in use. Their number is expected to increase to 1,184 by the end of the year. Ukraine’s ability to offset unstable Black Sea logistics with rail alternatives therefore depends not only on domestic rail capacity, but on the performance of the entire logistics chain to European ports and terminals.
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