After rising at the beginning of the week, wheat prices resumed their decline

Wheat prices on global exchanges fell 2.7-3.8% yesterday, giving up early week gains, as demand for old-crop grain remains low and weather favors good harvests in major exporting countries.

Yesterday, July futures fell in price:

• by 2.7% to $222.8/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 3.7% to $298.5/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 3.8% to $293.6/t – for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 1.2% to $257.5/t – for Black Sea wheat in Chicago,
• by 1.9% to €222.5/t or $238.9/t – September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext.

Representatives of the Russian Federation as part of the SCC continue to block the operation of the grain corridor, and during May 19-21 they inspected only 9 ships, although more than 60 ships are waiting in line. Vessels will not be allowed to enter the Southern port starting from May 2. Therefore, there is no reason to talk about increased pressure on the world market by grain supplies from Ukraine.

EU countries increased the export of soft wheat compared to the previous season by 13% from 24.86 to 28 million tons, of which 16% were delivered to Morocco, 13.9% to Algeria, 8.5% to Nigeria, 6 % – to Egypt and 5.1% – to Saudi Arabia.

Exports of wheat from the Russian Federation for the week decreased by 19% to 889 thousand tons, and in general since the beginning of the year reached 39.6 million tons, which is 43% ahead of last year’s pace, but wheat stocks remain at a record high level of 25.4 million tons. Turkey, Egypt, Yemen, Libya and Sudan became buyers of wheat.

Wheat prices will be supported by the decision of the Indian authorities to leave the ban on exports introduced in May 2022 with the aim of reducing domestic prices. At the same time, India supplies wheat to Nepal and Bhutan under intergovernmental agreements. In recent years, against the background of increased offers on the domestic market, India has intensified wheat exports, which averaged 2-7 million tons per year, in particular, it reached 5 million tons in 2022. It is expected that in 2023/24, India will harvest a record 112.18 million t of wheat.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, Algeria, EU, prices, Saudi Arabia, wheat, India, Nigeria, Morocco, Bhutan, Nepal