Germany expects smaller wheat and larger rapeseed crop in 2026

Germany’s 2026 wheat harvest is projected to decline by 3.3% year-on-year to about 22.38 million tonnes, according to the German Farmers’ Association (DRV). The decrease is mainly due to last year’s unusually high yields, although the crop is still expected to remain slightly above the long-term average.

At the same time, winter rapeseed production is forecast to increase by 4.5% to 4.15 million tonnes, supported by expanded planting areas. Favorable weather conditions, including sufficient rainfall and minimal winter damage, have contributed to generally positive crop development.

Sowing of most spring crops has already been completed, while production forecasts for other grains show mixed trends. Winter barley output is expected to decline by 0.5% to 9.47 million tonnes, spring barley by 10.7% to 1.62 million tonnes, and corn by 1.5% to 4.87 million tonnes.

Rising fertilizer prices, driven by higher energy costs amid the Iran war, have so far had limited impact, as most farmers purchased inputs in advance. However, continued high prices could pose risks for the 2027 harvest.

Germany remains the second-largest wheat producer in the European Union after France and one of the bloc’s key rapeseed producers, making these production trends significant for the broader European agricultural market.

Tags: wheat, rapeseed, Germany, crop forecast