Scientists believe that the phenomenon of La Niña may last another year, and this will negatively affect crops

The climatic phenomenon of La Niña may drag on for another year, for the third time in a row, which will increase uncertainty in the global agricultural markets, which are already suffering from unfavorable weather conditions in the main producing countries. Against the background of weather factors, prices for wheat, corn and soybeans remain very volatile with an upward trend.

In the Northern Hemisphere, La Niña will continue with a probability of 91% in September-November and will decrease to 54% in January-March 2023. However, the countries of the Southern Hemisphere suffer the most from this phenomenon.

Brazil

La Niña brought drought to the south of the country, drastically reducing maize production in FY 2020/21 and the first maize crop in FY 2021/22, which is 21% of total production.

Deficit rainfall significantly reduced soybean yields in 2019/20 M and 2021/22 MR in the southern states. Meteorologists predict that precipitation in the south will again be below normal in October and November.

Argentina

The main agricultural regions of the country are suffering from drought, and the driest winter since 1995 may worsen the harvest of grain and oil crops in 2022/23.

Historically, Argentina suffers more from La Niña than Brazil. Due to the lack of moisture, the yield of corn, wheat and soybeans has decreased dramatically for several years. Production of corn that has not yet started to be planted is also expected to decline in FY 2022/23.

According to the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, in FY 2021/22 wheat and corn sowing areas decreased compared to the previous year.

USA

La Niña brings cold stormy weather to the north of the country, and heat and drought to the south. In 2021/22 MR wheat yield decreased due to unfavorable weather, but in 2022/23 MR it will improve somewhat.

In the US Midwest, 2022/23 corn yields will also decrease due to drought.

La Niña-induced hurricanes in the Atlantic basin are destroying infrastructure and hampering US grain exports. In the current season, hurricane activity is still quite limited.

Australia

To the east of the country, La Niña brings additional rains, which favors the sowing of wheat. According to local analysts, in 2022/23 the wheat harvest will grow to 32.2 million tons due to intensive precipitation in the winter and spring period.

At the same time, La Niña causes catastrophic floods in the north of the country.

Asia

During the summer monsoons in Southeast Asia during La Niña, rainfall increases, helping rice production in India, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand, which are the main producers of the crop. However, in India this year during rice sowing, rains were intermittent.

This season, the duration of the southwest monsoon, which ends in October, is likely to continue due to La Niña, which will affect the ripe rice crops.

Africa

To the east of equatorial Africa, La Niña brings drought, which has already become the strongest in four decades. Reduced rainfall in Somalia, Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda and Ethiopia will reduce harvests amid global grain shortages.

Reducing production in East African countries will lead to reduced supplies in other countries, which will worsen global food security.