World meal and cake import forecast raised to record 103.9 million tons

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its February review again raised its forecast for global imports of meal and cake of major oilseeds in the 2024/25 marketing year.

The agency has been raising the estimate every month since November, and it now stands at a record 103.99 million tons. Among them, the world is expected to import 73.01 million tons of soybean meal and cake, 10.35 million tons of rapeseed meal and 8.6 million tons of sunflower meal.

For many years, China has been the largest producer of soybean meal, which is produced mainly from imported soybeans. For example, from 2013/14 to 2017/18, the share of meal made from imported soybeans averaged 93%. However, the figure has now started to decline due to increased imports of alternative feed ingredients, primarily sunflower and rapeseed meal.

“China began importing significant volumes of sunflower meal in the 2018/19 season, mainly from Ukraine. Significant volumes have also been shipped from Russia since 2022,” the USDA analysts noted.

Soybean meal exports from Ukraine reached 96,000 tons in December, the highest monthly shipment since May 2019. In total, Ukraine exported about 278 thousand tons of soybean meal from September to December 2024/25, up 12% from the same period last season.

The increase in soybean meal exports from Ukraine is also due to strong demand from the EU. Ukraine has increased soybean processing capacity as it has become more economically attractive for processors this season. But as noted earlier, Ukraine’s soybean processing margins are falling due to lower soybean meal prices.

Tags: soybean meal, sunflower meal, rapeseed meal