World Bank forecasts 9% rise in grain prices in 2027

Global grain prices are projected to rise by 14.1% in 2026 and a further 9.3% in 2027, according to the World Bank’s October Commodity Markets Outlook, published on October 28. The sharpest increases are expected in wheat prices amid risks of supply disruptions from the Black Sea region, rising production costs and adverse weather conditions. Meanwhile, the Bank expects its overall food commodity price index to increase by 10.3% in 2026 and 7.2% in 2027.

The strongest gains are forecast for US hard red winter (HRW) wheat, with average prices expected to reach $311 per ton in 2026, compared with $243 per ton in 2025, before climbing to $353 per ton in 2027. This represents annual increases of 28% and 13.5%, respectively. The World Bank has significantly raised its projections compared with April, when wheat prices were forecast at $253 per ton in 2026 and $260 per ton in 2027.

Corn prices are projected to rise from $203 per ton in 2025 to $223 per ton in 2026 and $235 per ton in 2027, representing annual increases of 9.9% and 5.4%, respectively. Barley prices are expected to reach $164 per ton this year and $172 per ton next year. Meanwhile, the benchmark price for Thai rice with 5% broken grains is forecast at $448 per ton in 2026 and $500 per ton in 2027, compared with $408 per ton in 2025.

Prices for oilseeds and feed ingredients are also expected to increase. Soybean meal prices are projected to rise by 17.5% to $430 per ton in 2026 and a further 9.5% to $471 per ton in 2027. Average soybean prices are forecast at $489 and $515 per ton, respectively. Soybean oil is expected to record the sharpest increase among these products, with prices rising by 39% to $1,585 per ton in 2026 before reaching $1,765 per ton in 2027.

Higher energy and fertilizer costs are adding pressure to agricultural markets. The World Bank forecasts a 32% increase in energy prices in 2026, with Brent crude oil expected to average $91 per barrel, compared with $69 in 2025. The fertilizer price index is projected to rise by 14.3% this year, while urea prices are expected to increase by 20.6% to $510 per ton. Fertilizer prices could decline by 12.4% in 2027, although energy, transportation and processing expenses will remain important factors affecting agricultural production costs.

The World Bank identifies further attacks on Black Sea grain shipments, rising energy costs and the possibility of a stronger El Niño event among the main risks to its outlook. Under an adverse scenario, a combination of these factors could push global food commodity prices 12% above the baseline forecast in 2027, exceeding their 2022 levels. Countries heavily dependent on grain imports, particularly in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia, would face the greatest risks under such conditions.

Tags: grain, prices, wheat