Winter barley area could fall to its lowest level since 2022

Ukraine continues to face a slow pace of barley exports, raising the risk of substantial carryover stocks by the end of the current marketing year. During the first nine days of November, shipments to foreign markets totaled just over 13 thsd tons. Meanwhile, poor production profitability is already leading to a significant reduction in the area planted with winter barley. This was reported by the analytical department of PUSK, an agricultural cooperative established within the Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC).

“Given current production volumes, Ukraine needs to export approximately 300–350 thsd tons of barley per month. However, these levels have rarely been reached this season, except in July, when exports totaled around 300 thsd tons. As of early November, barley stocks were estimated at nearly 6 mln tons. About 50–60% of this volume is expected to be consumed domestically. At the current pace of exports, carryover stocks could reach 2–3 mln tons by the end of the marketing year,” analysts noted.

The challenging market situation is directly influencing farmers’ planting decisions. As of last week, approximately 420 thsd hectares had been sown with winter barley.

“The total winter barley area is expected to slightly exceed 500 thsd hectares, approaching the low levels recorded in 2022, when around 600 thsd hectares were planted. The situation in Odesa region is particularly indicative, with barley acreage having almost halved. Together with Mykolaiv region, this area traditionally accounts for about 40% of Ukraine’s barley production. Farmers are switching some fields to rapeseed, while leaving others fallow,” PUSK reported.

Meanwhile, barley prices remain stable, with no signs of significant growth. In Danube ports, barley is trading at approximately UAH 7,000 per ton. Domestic prices generally exceed UAH 5,000 per ton, although some buyers are willing to offer up to UAH 6,000 per ton when they have immediate purchasing needs.

“Barley remains one of the loss-making crops. Large available supplies are limiting increases in purchasing prices, particularly in the domestic market. No significant price changes are expected in November. Even if full port operations resume, accumulated stocks could continue to weigh on the market for at least another season. Therefore, producers should consider selling grain at prices that allow them to cover production costs or secure at least a minimal profit margin,” analysts concluded.

Tags: Ukraine, barley, sown area