Will Saudi Arabia remain loyal to its traditional barley sellers in MY 2020/21?


Black Sea production is expected to decrease down 2-3% from MY 2019/20, mostly because of a crop decline in Ukraine due to reduced acreage, UkrAgroConsult reports. Black Sea exportable supplies in MY 2020/21 will remain at the level of MY 2019/20.

Like a year ago, Ukraine exports barley mostly to China. This season’s volume is up 77%, and China’s share in Ukrainian barley exports rose from 35% to 60%. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s share in the first two months dwindled to 15% from 19%.

Overall, the USDA estimates demand from the main buyer – Saudi Arabia – at last season’s level. `However the top supplies’ shares will change significantly.

Thus, the EU harvested a larger barley crop than last year and continues increasing its presence in Saudi Arabia and China, which are major export market for Black Sea markets.

UkrAgroConsult predicts Australian barley shipments to Saudi Arabia to fully restore in MY 2020/21. This will to a greater degree affect deliveries from Russia in view of its high export potential in MY 2020/21.

For Ukraine, whose exportable supplies dwindled, losing the market of Saudi Arabia will not be that noticeable.

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