Why Kenya’s wheat farmers are ditching the crop?

Kenyan wheat farmers are abandoning the crop in favour of others such as barley, a move expected to widen the supply deficit and open a window for more imports.

And this could put further pressure on the shilling exchange rate, which has hovered around Ksh129 against the US dollar for more than a year now, a US agriculture agency has warned.

Kenya produces only eight percent of its annual wheat demand and depends heavily (92 percent) on imports. Its annual wheat production was 135,000 tonnes in 2023, against a consumption of 2.2 million tonnes, which has been increasing over the past five years.

The deficit of about two million tonnes is filled through imports, largely from Russia, with other source countries being Argentina and Canada.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) says the area cultivate for wheat in Kenya will decline by 9.1 percent to 100,000 hectares in the current market year, which runs from July 2025 – year July 2026.

This opens a window for more imports to meet the growing demand for wheat, which is expected to increase by 2.6 percent (to 2.73 million tonnes) during the period.

Kenya’s wheat stocks, usually held by private traders and millers, will decrease by nine percent to 508,000 tonnes from 558,000 tonnes.“Wheat production will, however, decline by 5.6 percent due to a reduction in area harvested, as farmers respond to complications with the domestic support program,” the agency says in its latest report.

The agency, through its Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) division, says Nairobi will remain a net importer of wheat to meet the domestic supply shortfall.“FAS Nairobi anticipates MY 2025/26 imports will continue to increase, reaching 2.45 million metric tons as local demand for wheat products increases and domestic production decreases,” it says.

The government, through the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA), says the shrinking area under wheat cultivation is largely caused by several factors, including a “shift by farmers toward alternative crops,” the growing threat of quelea bird infestations—which have raised production costs—and ongoing land subdivision driven by population growth.

In 2024, the area under wheat cultivation declined by 1.83 percent to 102,287 hectares from 104,200 hectares in 2023, according to data from the AFA.

Wheat production, however, rose slightly by 0.48 percent to 310,973 tonnes in 2024 from 309,483 tonnes in 2023 due to favourable weather conditions in key wheat-producing regions, as well as government support through the provision of subsidised fertiliser.

During the period, the area under barley cultivation increased five percent to 13,929 hectares in 2024 from 13,292 hectares in 2023, while barley production rose 47.6 percent to 48,237 tonnes from 32,661 tonnes in the same period.

Barley imports increased by 14 percent to 1.87 million tonnes in 2024 from 1.64 million tonnes in 2023, primarily to bridge the local consumption deficit.

Kenya’s wheat production is dominated by large-scale farmers and is mostly done in Meru, Laikipia, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu, and Narok counties.

Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe was not available for comment, as calls and text messages to his cellphone went unanswered by press time.

Under the Wheat Purchase Programme (WPP), millers gazetted by the EAC Customs Union will continue benefiting from a reduced import duty rate of 10 percent (down from the standard 35 percent under the EAC Common External Tariff), provided they buy locally produced wheat at negotiated prices before they apply for import licences.

Wheat imports by millers or traders who are not covered under this arrangement are subject to the EAC CET of 35 percent, while wheat imports from EAC member countries are exempt from duty.

In 2024, wheat imports declined to 1,809,434.17 tonnes from 1,989,932 tonnes in 2023, due to government interventions implemented under the WPP, which prioritised local procurement and market stabilisation.

Tags: imports, stocks, Kenya, consumption, demand, barley, Production, wheat, crop