While Western Europe loses crops, Romania and Bulgaria prepare for record harvests

Despite sharply worsening grain crop prospects across much of the European Union due to heat and drought, Romania and Bulgaria are moving in the opposite direction. The Black Sea EU members are expected to partially ease the region’s grain supply deficit, while France, Germany and Poland face significant production losses.

According to Coceral, total EU grain production could decline by more than 9% this year, marking the steepest annual drop in more than two decades. France has been hit the hardest by extreme heat, with corn production expected to fall to its lowest level since 1990. France’s Ministry of Agriculture estimates that corn losses could reach as much as one-third of the crop.

Against this backdrop, Romania is on track to harvest one of the best crops in its history. According to Agricolumn analyst Cezar Gheorghe, abundant rainfall over the past three months has created conditions for record wheat, barley and rapeseed harvests. Adequate soil moisture has protected crops from the severe summer heat that has significantly reduced production potential across Western Europe.

Bulgaria is also expected to achieve a record wheat harvest, according to brokerage Agricore. However, analysts note that grain quality is below expectations because of lower protein content. Reduced nitrogen fertilizer application is seen as one of the main reasons, meaning a larger share of the crop will likely be used for feed rather than food production.

Despite the strong outlook for Romania and Bulgaria, their harvests will not be enough to fully offset losses in other major EU producing countries. EU wheat exports are already running behind last year’s pace, while grain prices continue to rise amid tightening supplies, adverse weather and ongoing uncertainty in the Black Sea region.

Analysts say strong harvests in Romania and Bulgaria will play an important role in supplying the European grain market, although the overall balance is expected to remain tight. This could create additional opportunities for Black Sea exporters, including Ukraine, provided that logistics allow the country to fully realize its export potential.

Tags: wheat, drought, rapeseed, crop forecast, Bulgaria, corn, Romania