Wheat yields below 5 t/ha in Ukraine are on the verge of profitability

Even relatively good wheat yields in Ukraine this season do not guarantee profits for farmers due to sharply lower purchase prices and problems with export logistics. According to industry estimates, the break-even yield for wheat under current market conditions is around 5 t/ha, provided that the grain meets at least Grade 3 quality standards.

Farmers confirm the difficult economics. Oleksiy Bovdyr, head of Skif LLC, says that at the current purchase price of around UAH 6 thsd/t, farms harvesting 4.5–5 t/ha of wheat are essentially only breaking even. Food-grade wheat can currently be sold by the farm for approximately UAH 6.2 thsd/t.

At the same time, harvest results remain relatively strong in many regions. In Odesa region, Svitanok Stari Maiaky harvested 5.5 t/ha of wheat, its best result in 15 years. In Cherkasy region, Agrein reported an average wheat yield of 7 t/ha, with its best-performing field reaching 8 t/ha.
Meanwhile, moisture shortages prevented western Ukrainian farms from fully realizing their yield potential. While average wheat yields in the region normally reach 7–8 t/ha, farmers were harvesting just over 6 t/ha around the midpoint of this year’s campaign, including about 6.5 t/ha in Ternopil region. Rainfall in some areas also caused deterioration in grain quality.

Farmers say the main challenge this season is no longer how much wheat they can harvest, but whether they can sell it at an acceptable price. Disruptions to port logistics caused by Russian attacks have weakened export demand, while higher costs for fertilizers, crop protection products, fuel and other inputs have increased production costs. Under these conditions, more farms are delaying grain sales and considering lower production expenditures for the next season.

Tags: Ukraine, wheat, yield