Wheat rises amid Iran ceasefire worries and looming US crop data

Wheat rebounded from a one-month low in Chicago as optimism over the ceasefire in the Middle East faded, with any re-escalation potentially threatening further supply chain disruptions and higher price for farm inputs.

President Donald Trump pledged to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran, while Tehran warned that some terms of the two-week pause in fighting had been breached and that there may be mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Wheat is a nitrogen-intensive crop, making it especially vulnerable to supply disruptions in Hormuz, a major trade corridor for fertilizer.

Benchmark wheat futures climbed as much as 1.4% in Chicago, after dropping 3% on Wednesday in the wake of the ceasefire announcement.

While there was some dip buying taking place in the market, the disputes over the ceasefire were “an escalation of war, however you look at it,” said Joe Davis, a director of commodities at brokerage Futures International in Illinois.

“Wheat is already bullish with the dryness in the Great Plains and the worsening crop conditions as we saw on Monday,” Davis said in an interview, referring to a summary from the US Department of Agriculture.

The USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report due later Thursday is also expected to show a drop in US wheat stockpiles, according to a survey of analysts.

In other crop markets, soybean oil and palm oil futures also rose amid doubts about the sustainability of the Middle East ceasefire, tracking crude oil. Oilseed markets can be influenced by moves in oil prices because they can affect the appeal of crop-based biofuels.

“Crude oil markets have opened higher today after sliding lower yesterday, offering support to vegetable oil markets,” according to Matt Darragh, a grains and oilseed analyst at Kpler.

Tags: prices, wheat