Wheat quotes on world stock exchanges started the week with a fall

Winter wheat crops in the United States on the eve of the forecast frosts were covered with snow, which reduced the speculative mood of traders and led to a drop in quotations.

The statement of official representatives of the Ukrainian authorities that the export of food wheat in the 1st half of 2022 will not be restricted also reduced speculative pressure on the prices of Black Sea and European wheat.

According to preliminary estimates of Rosstat, in 2021 Russia Harvested 75.9 million tons of wheat in net weight, compared with 85.9 million tons in 2020 and 75.5 million tons projected by the USDA in December.

Export prices for Russian wheat rose slightly after three weeks of falling last week, following the stock exchanges in Paris and Chicago. According to the Icarus, SovEcon and Rusagrotrans agencies, prices for wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery in January increased by тиждень 1/ton over the week to F 330-333/ton FOB. However, trading activity will remain low until January 10.

In my 2021/22, as of December 22, Russia exported 14.7 million tons of wheat, which is 38% lower than last year’s pace. Analysts predict that at the end of December, exports will reach 22 million tons (including deliveries to the EAEU countries), which will be 17% less than last year.

• March Black Sea wheat futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday fell by 1 1.25/ton to 3 344.75/ton, which is 4.4% lower than last month.

Heavy snowfalls in Ukraine and Russia will reliably protect winter crops from the next wave of frosts in -10…-15 ^OhC, that will come this week, and from next the temperature will rise to -55 -2 ^OhS.

• March European wheat futures on Paris ‘ Euronext fell 0.75 €/t yesterday to 289.5 €/t or 3 327.88/t amid a decrease in the impact of speculative weather factors and restrictions on exports from Ukraine.

On the US stock exchanges, traders recorded profits after speculative price increases due to projected frosts and low wheat exports. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in the week of December 17-23, the United States exported 274.45 thousand tons of wheat, and in general in the season – 11.92 million tons, which is 22% lower than last year’s pace.

March US futures fell:

• by 3 3.95 / ton to Чикаго 295.4/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 5 5.33 / ton to H 311.2/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 2 2.94/ton to.376.4 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Experts of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (BAGE) reported that Argentina threshed 78.3% of the area, and raised the forecast for the wheat harvest by 500 thousand tons to 21.5 million tons, which is 1.5 million tons higher than the December USDA estimate.

If in the January balance sheet the USDA increases its forecasts for wheat production in Argentina, Australia and Russia by 2-4 million tons, then the pressure on quotes will increase.