Wheat production in India remains stable despite weather shocks

India’s wheat production for the 2025–2026 marketing year is expected to remain stable despite localized losses caused by adverse weather conditions, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Officials described the season as “mixed but resilient,” highlighting the sector’s ability to withstand climate-related challenges.

Industry estimates suggest total wheat output will reach around 110–111 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 109.6 million tonnes recorded last season, but still below the government’s initial forecast of over 120 million tonnes. Final production is expected to fall within the range of 110 to 120 million tonnes.

The total area sown with wheat this season reached 33.4 million hectares. Importantly, no major pest or disease outbreaks were reported. Early sowing played a key role, allowing crops to avoid peak heat stress during the critical grain-filling stage.

However, farmers faced challenges from unusually high temperatures in February, as well as untimely rainfall and hailstorms during the maturity phase. These factors affected yields and grain quality in some regions, although the overall impact was contained.

Procurement data indicates solid production levels. In particular, Madhya Pradesh increased its procurement target to 10 million tonnes due to higher expected output. Meanwhile, Maharashtra’s wheat production is estimated at 2.29 million tonnes, with steady arrivals from the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, confirming the sector’s overall resilience.