Wheat production edges lower for Canada

Lower yields are anticipated to push Canada’s total wheat production down 1.1% year on year to 35.5 million tonnes in 2025 while harvested area remains steady at 26.3 million acres, according to Statistics Canada.

In its July field crop estimates report released Aug. 28, Statistics Canada estimated canola, corn for grain and oats production would increase in 2025, while soybeans and barley join wheat on the downside.

Wheat yields for Canada, perennially among the world’s top exporters, are expected to fall by 1.2% to 49.6 bushels per acre with generally variable crop conditions across the Prairies impacting all crops.

The decrease in expected total wheat production is largely attributable to spring wheat, which is anticipated to fall by 2% to 26 million tonnes, Statistics Canada said. The shift is a result of lower projected harvested area, which is expected to fall by 1.5% to 18.4 million acres, and lower yields, which are anticipated to decrease 0.5% to 51.9 bushels per acre.

Durum wheat yields are expected to fall 5.1% to 35.1 bushels per acre, offsetting higher harvested area — up slightly to 6.4 million acres — contributing to a 4.7% decrease in durum wheat production to 6.1 million tonnes.

Nationally, canola production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tonnes this year for the world’s top producer and exporter of the oilseed. The anticipated increase in production was attributable to higher yields, which are expected to rise by 5.7% to 41 bushels per acre, offsetting lower harvested area, which is projected to decrease by 2% to 21.4 million acres, the agency noted.

Corn for grain production is projected to increase by 1.4% to 15.6 million tonnes, with yields anticipated to fall by 1.7% to 165.9 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to rise to 3.7 million acres (up 3.1%). Drier-than-normal conditions in major corn-producing provinces, coupled with high temperatures, may have contributed to lower anticipated yields, Statistics Canada noted.

While soybean harvested area has climbed 1.3% to 5.7 million acres, an 8.5% falloff in yields to 45 bushels per acre is seen dropping production to 7 million tonnes, down 7.3% year over year.

Farmers expect to produce 1.9% less barley year over year to 8 million tonnes in 2025, driven by lower harvested area, down 6.7% to 5.5 million acres.

Oat production is anticipated to rise 1% to 3.4 million tonnes due to higher yields, which are projected to climb 2.3% to 90.7 bushels per acre, offsetting lower harvested area of 2.4 million acres, down 1.2%.

Tags: durum wheat, corn, spring wheat, barley, estimates, canola, oats, soybeans, harvested area, Canada, Production, wheat, yields, crop, conditions