Wheat prices rose by 2.5% amid escalation in the Middle East

The increased likelihood of an open war between Iran and Israel with the involvement of other countries in the conflict has led to a sharp rise in wheat prices.

Yesterday, the December futures rose:

• by 2.6% to 220 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2.5% to 219,8 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 2.1% to 233.2 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 2.4% to 227,5 €/t or 251,6 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext.

Rise in prices of European wheat contributes to the growth of exports from Ukraine and Russia, while the supply of wheat from the EU are reduced.

According to the European Commission, in MY  2024/25 (as of September 29), the EU exported 6.14 mln tonnes of wheat, which is 35% lower than last year.

Export spot prices for French wheat remain at 245-250 $/t FOB, while Russian wheat is offered at 223-225 $/t FOB.

In 2024/25 MY, Russia exported 15.4 mln tonnes of wheat, including 5.286 mln tonnes in September, down 9.5% and 16%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the supplies to Egypt in September increased by 29% to 1.335 mln tonnes compared to last year, and to Algeria – by 2.8 times to 453 thsd tonnes. As a reminder, in MY 2023/24 almost 70% of the wheat imported by Egypt came from Russia.

According to the forecast of FAS USDA, Morocco in MY  2024/25 will increase wheat imports from 6.24 to 7.5 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, as due to severe drought its own wheat harvest will decrease from 4.16 to 2.47 mln tonnes, and barley – from 1.35 to 0.66 mln tonnes.

European exporters continue to lose North African markets, and Russia, amid declining demand from traditional buyers such as Turkey, Iran and Pakistan (which have harvested good crops of their own), is actively increasing supplies to North Africa, reducing prices to increase sales.

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Tags: prices, wheat