Wheat prices rise in Chicago and Paris ahead of new USDA forecast

Global wheat futures ended Friday, August 7, higher, while corn prices in Chicago were virtually unchanged and soybean futures edged lower. September SRW wheat futures on the CBOT rose 1.35% to $235.06/t, September HRW wheat in Kansas City climbed to $262.35/t, while spring wheat futures in Minneapolis reached $249.67/t.

The wheat market was supported by expectations ahead of updated U.S. production estimates due from NASS on August 12. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect U.S. wheat production at 1.525 bln bushels, down 11 mln bushels from the July estimate. Winter wheat production is forecast at 981 mln bushels, while spring wheat output is expected at 468 mln bushels.

At the same time, U.S. wheat export figures remain relatively weak. Total sales since the beginning of the marketing year reached 7.277 mln tons, down 29% from the same period last year. Commitments currently account for around 35% of the USDA’s annual export forecast, compared with 44% a year earlier. In France, the agriculture ministry lowered its soft wheat production forecast by 0.1 mln tons to 31.9 mln tons.

Chicago corn futures were virtually unchanged on Friday, with the September contract holding at $172.83/t. Ahead of the August NASS report, analysts expect the U.S. corn yield to average 182.4 bushels per acre (11.45 t/ha). Meanwhile, the USDA reported a private sale of 286.1 thsd tons of corn to Mexico. Total old-crop corn export commitments have reached 87.09 mln tons, up 23% year-on-year.

Soybean prices ended the session slightly lower, with November CBOT futures falling 0.13% to $432.19/t. Ample South American supplies continue to weigh on the market. Brazil exported 13.4 mln tons of soybeans in July, while ANEC expects August shipments to reach 9.74 mln tons. At the same time, Chinese demand has strengthened, with the U.S. reporting a new sale of 238 thsd tons of soybeans to China after Chinese buyers reportedly purchased around 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans a day earlier.

European grain markets also ended the week higher. September milling wheat futures on Euronext in Paris rose 1.21% to €223/t ($256.99/t), while December futures reached €232/t. November corn increased to €248.25/t ($286.08/t). Ahead of the August U.S. crop estimates, wheat received the strongest support in the grain complex, while corn and soybean markets remained more subdued.

Tags: soybean, wheat, corn, prices