Wheat prices in Ukraine continue to rise due to delayed harvest

Wheat prices in Ukraine increased by 8-10% in a month due to delayed harvest and low yields, but further growth is limited by a 5.2-12% drop in September futures on exchanges against the backdrop of improved weather conditions and a good global balance in the new season.

The wheat market in Ukraine is experiencing a situation similar to that observed in early July on the barley market, when several traders immediately set up ships for export shipments, but due to a delay in harvesting, they did not have time to purchase the necessary volumes of barley on time, so to fulfill the agreements they were forced to raise prices by $10-20/t above the contract prices and suffered losses.

Rainfall in central and western parts of Ukraine is delaying harvest and may increase the share of feed wheat, so we can expect the discount between feed and food wheat prices to increase.

Amid low yields in southern Ukraine, wheat export prices continue to rise, and limited supply is increasing purchasing activity in Black Sea ports.

Over the past week, prices for wheat delivered to Black Sea ports in Ukraine have increased:

• by $8–10/t to $220–225/t or UAH 10,500–10,650/t for food wheat,
• by $10–12/t to $215–218/t or UAH 10,200–10,300/t for feed wheat (due to the high quality of wheat in the south).

As of July 19, 2025, 4.67 million tons of wheat were harvested in Ukraine from 1.5 million hectares of land with a yield of 3.11 tons/ha (last year, 10.3 million tons were harvested from 2.626 million hectares with a yield of 3.92 tons/ha).

In the first 19 days of the new season, wheat exports amounted to only 279 thousand tons, compared to 872 thousand tons for the same period in the MY 2024/25.

USDA data on increased exports and worsening spring wheat crop conditions did not support quotes, and September futures fell yesterday:

• by 0.7% to $199.2/t for SRW wheat in Chicago (-5.2% per month),
• by 0.6% to $193.2/t for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-7.4%),
• by 1.6% to $215.9/t for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-12%).
• by 0.2% to €202/t or $236/t (-8.7%) for wheat on the Euronext Paris exchange.

As of July 20, the U.S. winter wheat crop is 73% harvested (75% last year and 72% on average over the past 5 years) and yields are quite high. The number of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 2% to 52% during the week (77% last year), but good rainfall continues to improve the condition of the crops.

During July 11-17, wheat exports from the United States increased by 65% compared to the previous week to 732.3 thousand tons, and in total since the beginning of the 2025/26 season (June 1) amounted to 3 million tons, which is 13.7% ahead of last year’s pace.

In the southwestern part of the Russian Federation, heat and drought are accelerating the harvest of winter wheat, but reducing the harvest potential. For example, in the Rostov region, the wheat harvest is forecast to decrease to 8 million tons, which will be 30% less than last year, and will lead to an increase in prices for Black Sea wheat.