Wheat prices in Ukraine continue to rise, although stock exchange quotes fell by 3.9–8.7% over the week

Yesterday, several bearish USDA reports increased pressure on wheat stock quotes (which fell by 3.9-8.7% last week), but in Ukraine, forecasts of a reduced harvest led to a slight increase in export prices.

According to USDA reports:

• – wheat stocks in the US as of June 1 amounted to 23.15 million tons, which exceeded trade forecasts by 1.8% and last year’s figure by 4.19 million tons;
• – wheat plantings in the US amounted to 45.478 million acres, which exceeded trade forecasts by 40 thousand acres and the March estimate by 128 thousand acres;
• – wheat exports from the USA for the period June 20-26 increased by 70.5% to 434.5 thousand tons, and in total in the MY 2025/26 reached 1.279 million tons, which is 7.9% lower than last year’s pace.

As of June 29, 37% of winter wheat in the United States has been threshed (52% last year and 42% on average for 5 years). The number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 1% to 48% (51% last year), and spring wheat – by 1% to 53% (72% last year).

July US wheat futures yesterday:

• • rose by 0.8% to $194.3/t for SRW wheat in Chicago (-4.5% for the week),
• • decreased by 2% to $185.9/t for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-8.7%),
• • decreased by 0.8% to $221.6/t for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-3.9%).

September wheat futures on the Paris-based Euronext exchange fell 0.5% to €195/t or $230/t yesterday, losing 4.7% for the week amid forecasts of a higher harvest in the EU.

According to the new forecast of the European Commission, EU soft wheat production in MY 2025/26 will increase by 15% compared to the previous year to 128.2 million tons. At the same time, in MY 2024/25, EU soft wheat exports will decrease by 35% compared to the previous season to 19.9 million tons, and imports will decrease from 9.1 to 7.3 million tons.

The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar reduces the competitiveness of European grain on the world market, which puts pressure on prices in the EU.

Argus agency lowered its forecast for wheat production in Ukraine by 1.82 million tons compared to March estimates to 21.88 million tons, while USDA estimates it at 23 million tons.

During the week in Ukraine, export purchase prices for wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports increased by another 50-100 UAH/t:

• for food wheat up to 9900–10100 UAH/t or 208–211 $/t,
• for fodder – up to 9400–9500 UAH/t or 199-201 $/t.

Data on lower-than-expected wheat yields in the south is holding back sales, so traders paid a premium of UAH 100-200/t for quick delivery to close old contracts.

The Egyptian government purchased about 3.9 million tons of wheat from local producers, falling short of the planned volume of 4-5 million tons, which may indicate an increase in imports.

Tags: prices, wheat