Wheat prices in the US are rising on expectations of demand from China, and in Ukraine – due to low supply

Wheat prices on US stock exchanges have been rising for the second week in a row. Now, amid information from Bloomberg that China may also buy American wheat in addition to soybeans.

During the week, December wheat futures on exchanges rose:

• by 3.3% to $199.7/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago (+7.5% in two weeks, +6% in a month),
• by 3.4% to $195.4/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+8.4%, +7.5%),
• by 0.1% to $205.6/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (unchanged for the month).

Prices were also supported by the export inspection report: during October 24-30, wheat exports from the United States increased by 30% compared to the previous week to 350.3 thousand tons, and in total in the MY 2025/26 reached 11.825 million tons, which is 20.5% ahead of last year’s pace.

At the same time, December wheat futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris rose by only 0.1% to €193.75/t or $223/t (+3.2% per month), as a significant supply of Black Sea wheat limits exports from the EU.

SovEcon experts have increased the forecast for the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation in 2025 to 87.8 million tons, with exports in October likely to reach 5 million tons.

Ukraine exported 1.45 million tons of wheat in October, which almost corresponds to the figure for October 2024 (1.58 million tons), and in total in the MY 2025/26, exports reached 6.18 million tons, which is 24% lower than the corresponding figure last year (7.68 million tons).

Against the background of growing export demand and the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia, export demand prices for wheat in Ukraine increased by 50-100 UAH/t per week to 10,500-10,600 UAH/t for food wheat and 9,750-9,900 UAH/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports, but prices in foreign currency remained at the levels of $218-223/t and $207-209/t, respectively.

The seasonal increase in logistics costs by 10-20% due to the mass harvesting of late crops limits deliveries to the port from farmers, so some traders are forced to raise prices to attract the necessary shipments.

Weather conducive to sowing and development of winter wheat crops in the USA, EU, Ukraine and Russia, as well as the harvest in Australia and Argentina, will increase pressure on prices in December, so further price growth both in the world and in Ukraine will stop.