Wheat prices in the US are rising, but remain stable in Ukraine

Last week, prices for wheat, especially spring and durum, rose sharply on US stock exchanges. The reason was a lack of rainfall in winter wheat growing regions and a deterioration in the condition of crops, as well as the continuation of the war with Iran.

Markets are still waiting for a peace deal between the US and Iran, although the second round of talks, which will take place today, will be held under the pressure of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed. World wheat prices have not received a strong speculative boost since the start of the war with Iran, but analysts warn that rising fuel and fertilizer costs and the continuation of the blockade of the Persian Gulf in the near term could lead to a significant increase in wheat prices, especially in the event of adverse weather in exporting countries.

According to the USDA’s crop condition report, the number of crops in good or excellent condition in the US decreased by 4% to 30% in a week (45% last year). At the same time, 12% of the planned area was sown with spring wheat in the US, which is in line with the 5-year average.

Weather forecasts promise precipitation, but in the Southern and Northern Plains of the United States, its amount will be insignificant.

During the week, May wheat futures in the US rose:

• by 0.8% to $220.4/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 5.2% to $233.3/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 4.8% to $240.8/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis,

At the same time, wheat futures on Euronext in Paris decreased by 0.9% to €194/t or $228.5/t.

According to the USDA, during April 9-16, wheat exports from the United States increased by 90% compared to the previous week to 518.2 thousand tons, which significantly supported the quotations. In total, 21.491 million tons of wheat were exported in the 2025/26 MY, which is 14% lower than the pace of the previous season.

Ukraine accelerated wheat exports in April. During April 1-17, 677 thousand tons of wheat were shipped (compared to 435 thousand tons during the same period last year), and in total since the beginning of the season, exports amounted to 10.7 million tons, which is 27% lower than the corresponding figure last year (13.56 million tons). However, increased shelling of ports and damage to three ships on the approach to Black Sea ports will limit demand for Ukrainian wheat.

Over the past week, export purchase prices for food wheat in Ukraine remained at the level of 10,800–10,900 UAH/t or $218–222/t, and for feed wheat – within the range of 10,550–10,650 UAH/t or $214–216/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, as against the background of weak global demand, prices for Russian and European wheat are falling, which further reduces demand for Ukrainian wheat.

Weather conditions are favorable for winter wheat crops in Ukraine, with good precipitation, although temperatures are quite low. The winter wheat growing area in the southwest of the Russian Federation is also experiencing good precipitation, which will continue next week.

In the next two months, world wheat prices may rise on forecasts of a reduction in the future harvest in Australia due to a significant rainfall deficit before the start of winter wheat sowing.

A Bloomberg survey showed that wheat acreage in Australia in the MY 2026/27 could decline to a 7-year low amid a rainfall deficit, low purchase prices, and fuel and fertilizer shortages, which worsens the prospects for the future harvest.