Wheat prices fall to lowest since 2020 amid oversupply and trade tensions between the US and China

Wheat prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2020, reaching $4.9 per bushel, amid oversupply and an escalating trade war between the United States and China. According to Bloomberg, the price decline has been going on for the fourth day in a row, reflecting the current situation in the global grain market.

According to a report by the American company Hightower Report, demand for wheat remains stable, but significant global stocks allow end consumers to take their time with active purchases. At the same time, the Russian consulting agency SovEcon has increased its forecast for wheat production in Russia, which is one of the leading exporters, and in Argentina, a record harvest is expected for MY 2021/22.

Trade tensions between the United States and China are also affecting the market, reducing the forecast demand for American soybeans, which puts additional pressure on wheat and corn prices. In particular, on October 9, the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China announced the strengthening of control over the export of rare earth metals and technologies, and on October 10, US President Donald Trump announced the increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by 100% from November 1, as well as the introduction of export controls on software.

According to the Chinese Customs Service, trade turnover between the US and China in January-September 2025 decreased by 15.6% year-on-year, amounting to $425.81 billion. This situation increases uncertainty in the global market, which may further affect agricultural prices.

According to analysts, the current situation in the wheat market reflects the complex interaction between supply, demand and geopolitical factors. It is expected that without a significant revival in demand or changes in trade policy, wheat prices will remain under pressure in the near future.

Tags: prices, wheat