Wheat prices fall for fourth consecutive day on Black Sea truce hopes

Global wheat prices declined for a fourth consecutive day after US President Donald Trump said Ukraine and Russia had reached an agreement on an immediate “energy ceasefire.” The announcement raised expectations of a de-escalation in hostilities and a potential recovery in stable grain shipments through the Black Sea, Bloomberg reported.

Wheat futures in Chicago fell by as much as 1.3% on Monday before paring some losses. Ukraine and Russia together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, making developments in the Black Sea region a key factor influencing prices. Additional pressure on grain markets came from an unexpected upward revision to US corn production forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

According to Joe Davis, director of commodity sales at Futures International LLC, the market is reacting less to the potential suspension of strikes on energy infrastructure than to broader expectations of reduced military tensions. In recent weeks, escalating hostilities and attacks on port infrastructure have significantly disrupted grain exports, forcing buyers in Asia and Africa to seek alternative suppliers, often involving longer shipping routes and higher costs.

Trump announced the agreement on Sunday but provided few details. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine supports the ceasefire but is awaiting clarification. Market participants will be watching for confirmation of the agreement from Moscow and Kyiv. However, even an energy ceasefire would not guarantee the safety of grain infrastructure or commercial vessels, leaving the outlook for Black Sea exports uncertain.

Additional downward pressure on prices came from USDA forecasts for the US corn crop. On Friday, corn futures recorded their largest decline in three years after the agency raised its yield and production estimates. The selloff spilled over into the wheat market, where prices fell by as much as 3.2% during trading. Analysts believe that seasonal harvest pressure over the next month will also limit the potential for a recovery in grain prices.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, prices, Black Sea region, wheat, USA