Wheat harvest in Australia may be smaller than in Ukraine

Australia, the world’s third-largest wheat exporter, could export 10 million tonnes less this season, about 5% of global exports, due to poor rainfall and a sharp rise in fuel and fertiliser prices due to the Iran war, Reuters reported.

A smaller Australian crop would reduce global wheat supplies and push up prices that have already started to rise.

Australia is the first major exporter to start planting wheat since the Iran war, which cut fuel and fertiliser supplies from the Gulf. Other countries could also cut back, further reducing food supplies.

Reuters surveyed 18 farmers across Australia. In the driest regions, most are cutting back significantly on wheat. Nationally, many are switching to crops such as barley or rapeseed, which require less fertiliser or have higher returns.

Six agricultural analysts believe that Australia’s wheat area will fall by 7-20% compared to last year — equivalent to an area almost the size of Belgium.

The harvest to be harvested at the end of the year could be 16-41% lower — from about 36 million tonnes last year to 21.3 million tonnes in the worst-case scenario.

The next major wheat exporters, Argentina and Canada, could also cut production due to high costs and delays in planting.

The global wheat market is expected to shift from a surplus to a deficit, leading to reduced stocks and further price increases.

Australia may harvest less wheat than Ukraine

According to USDA, in the 2025/26 MY, Australia harvested 36 million tons of wheat and exported 26 million tons. The forecast for the new MY is 30 million tons, while for Ukraine it is predicted to be 23 million tons.

However, if the pessimistic forecasts of analysts cited in the Reuters news come true and the wheat harvest in Australia is 21.3 million tons, then it may be smaller than the Ukrainian one.

Tags: Australia, Ukraine, wheat, crop forecast