Wheat futures fall for eighth consecutive week for first time since 1997

Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are on track to decline for an eighth consecutive week, marking the longest losing streak since 1997. According to Bloomberg, as of October 23, the most actively traded wheat contract had lost 4.7% during the week, although prices temporarily rose by as much as 1.1% during Friday’s trading. This represents a sharp reversal following September’s rally, when wheat prices reached their highest levels since 2023. Meanwhile, corn futures are also heading for a fourth consecutive weekly decline.

One of the main reasons for falling prices is the gradual erosion of the geopolitical risk premium that emerged following Russian attacks on vessels and port infrastructure in the Black Sea region. In September, disruptions to Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports forced importers to seek alternative suppliers, triggering a sharp increase in prices. Expectations of a possible easing of geopolitical tensions are currently reducing perceived risks of grain supply disruptions from the Black Sea region. However, restrictions on maritime logistics remain in place, while the stability of export routes continues to be uncertain.

Additional pressure on global prices comes from the gradual redirection of Russian grain exports to alternative routes, particularly through Baltic ports. Meanwhile, wheat demand from some major importers remains subdued. In particular, US net wheat export sales for the week ending October 15 fell below expectations. Analysts at Total Farm Marketing suggest that some buyers may be postponing purchases while awaiting possible agreements to resolve the situation in the Black Sea region.

Prices are also being influenced by expectations of increasing grain supplies on the global market. Harvesting is gaining momentum in Australia and Argentina, two major wheat exporters in the Southern Hemisphere, which is expected to bring additional grain supplies to the market in the coming months. According to analysts at Bendigo Bank, global wheat production could reach the second-highest level on record, easing concerns about potential supply shortages.

Tags: prices, wheat, global market