Wheat futures continue to fall despite sharp cut to Ukraine’s export forecast

The FAS USDA representative in Kyiv sharply lowered forecasts for Ukraine’s wheat and corn exports in 2026/27 in the August report amid export disruptions caused by the deteriorating security situation in the Black Sea, intensified Russian attacks on port infrastructure in Greater Odesa and civilian vessels, which have prompted shipowners to increasingly refuse calls at Ukrainian ports.

The forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports in 2026/27 was cut by 25.5% from the previous estimate of 14.5 mln tons to 10.8 mln tons.

The situation is further complicated by low water levels on the Danube, which are limiting the capacity of alternative export routes.

Logically, expectations of a sharp decline in exports from one of the world’s major wheat suppliers should support demand and prices for European and US wheat. However, futures markets reacted in the opposite direction. Soft wheat futures on Euronext in Paris fell 2.4% yesterday, while Chicago soft wheat futures remained unchanged.

Over the past week, September wheat futures declined for a second consecutive week:

• by 1.6% to $235.4/t for SRW wheat in Chicago (+0.8% for the month);
• by 0.5% to $262.2/t for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+6.9%);
• by 3.7% to $246.2/t for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+2.3%);
• by 3.7% to €217.75/t, or $251.6/t, for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (+0.7%).

Futures have now given back almost all of their sharp July gains triggered by the halt in Ukraine’s seaborne exports, even though there are still no signs of a rapid recovery in shipments from Ukrainian ports. At the same time, exports from Russia’s Black Sea ports are also expected to face restrictions.

Over the past week, export bid prices for wheat in Ukraine remained virtually unchanged at UAH 8,200–8,900/t, or $160–175/t, for milling wheat and UAH 7,900–8,200/t, or $155–160/t, for feed wheat delivered to Danube and Black Sea ports.

Domestic processors lowered their bid prices for milling wheat to UAH 7,000–7,500/t delivered to mills. Meanwhile, farmers continue to limit active sales in the hope that traders will establish new export routes to the EU or Romanian ports.

Traders are awaiting USDA’s updated global wheat balance, due on August 12, which is expected to include lower export forecasts for Ukraine and higher projections for the EU and the US. Futures markets could show a stronger reaction once the updated estimates are released.

Tags: wheat, Ukraine, export, EU