Wheat, corn and soybeans post gains on CBOT as geopolitics and crop conditions remain in focus

Chicago grain futures ended higher on Tuesday, with wheat, corn and soybeans posting gains despite mixed fundamentals. Market sentiment was supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ahead of the upcoming U.S.-Iran talks and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while traders continued to monitor harvest progress and crop conditions in the United States.

September CBOT soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures settled at $243.42/t, up 0.38%, while December contracts also advanced. In contrast, hard red winter wheat futures in Kansas City and spring wheat futures in Minneapolis finished slightly lower. Weekly USDA NASS data showed the U.S. winter wheat harvest reaching 81% complete as of July 26, two percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Spring wheat was 92% headed, while harvest had just begun with 2% of the crop collected.

The wheat market also remained under pressure from export competition. European Commission data showed EU soft wheat exports reached 0.57 mln tons between July 1 and 26, down 0.89 mln tons from the same period last year. At the same time, SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 44.6 mln tons, while increasing its corn export outlook to 3.6 mln tons, reflecting changes in Russia’s grain balance.

Corn futures led Tuesday’s gains, with the September contract rising 1.5% to $180.51/t after the USDA reported a private export sale of 197,272 tons of new-crop corn to unknown destinations. NASS data showed 78% of the U.S. corn crop had reached the silking stage, ahead of the five-year average, while crop ratings declined four percentage points to 63% in good-to-excellent condition. Meanwhile, Brazilian exporters’ association ANEC reduced its July corn export estimate to 3.3 mln tons, although shipments are still expected to exceed last year’s level.

Soybean futures also closed higher despite another deterioration in U.S. crop conditions. November soybean futures settled at $448.27/t, up 0.51%. According to USDA data, 80% of the U.S. soybean crop had reached the flowering stage and 47% had set pods, both ahead of the historical pace, while the good-to-excellent rating fell three percentage points to 63%. China’s state grain reserve company Sinograin is scheduled to auction 504,000 tons of imported soybeans on July 31.

In South America, Brazil’s soybean market continues to show strong fundamentals. ANEC trimmed its July soybean export forecast to 12.5 mln tons, while industry association Abiove raised its 2026 soybean crushing estimate to 63.3 mln tons and increased its export forecast to 115.4 mln tons. On the European market, however, grain futures moved lower, with September milling wheat on MATIF falling to €227.75/t and August corn declining to €248.50/t, reflecting continued pressure from the new harvest and ample global supplies.

Tags: corn, prices, soybean, wheat