Ukraine. Wheat 2024/25 season: Early start, record exports, export memorandum, other price setting factors

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maksym Kharchenko

Grain & Freight Market Analyst

HARVESTING IS OVER 

The 2024 wheat harvesting is over several weeks earlier than usually. The final yield is reported at 4.47 mt/ha, above the 5-year average but below y/y. Though harvested area increased by 152 K ha in 2024 compared to 2023, the harvest was 636 K mt lower due to lower yields.

2024/25 WHEAT EXPORTS RATES

The early start of the wheat harvest allowed for higher than usual exports in July of 1.545 M mt, which is an all-time record for this month. This fact also supports the estimate of higher carryover stocks for the 2024/25 season.

In the last two years the pattern of exports by month has changed.  Prior to 2022, Ukraine exported more than 70% of total exports in the first half of the season (July-December). In 2022-2023, exports during these months were only 40-50% of total exports.

Monthly shipments in 2022-2024 were lower, but without strong peaks. UkrArgoConsult expects the export rates to change again in the current 2024/25 MY, closer to the traditional export season.

EXPORT MEMORANDUM 

A memorandum of understanding was signed between the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and grain market associations. The Memo sets the maximum wheat export quota at 16.2 M mt. Flour industry of Ukraine proposed to specify in the Memo that the export of wheat protein 11%+ should not exceed 4.6 M mt. This proposal is still under discussion as share of milling wheat in this year’s crop is slightly lower than usual. The market is converging milling wheat share at +/- 40% in total production, compared to the usual 50-55%.

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Tags: Ukraine, export, prices, wheat, harvesting