What are the threats to Ukraine from new trade conditions with the EU?

The transitional period that the European Union plans to introduce for trade with Ukraine has two negative aspects.

This was stated by the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, People’s Deputy («Servant of the People») Danylo Hetmantsev, in Telegram, referring to insiders.

First, according to him, they want to divide the annual quotas for duty-free supplies into 12 monthly quotas.

“That is, if earlier, depending on the commodity item, duty-free supplies could stop in March, June, August or October, now the “counter” can be turned on every month, and the stopcock can limit supplies conditionally on the 3rd, 5th or 7th of the corresponding month,” he explained.

According to the deputy, the conclusion and execution of contracts will definitely become more complicated and more nerve-wracking.

Secondly, the EU plans to reduce the quotas themselves.

“The biggest blow will be suffered by corn producers, for whom the annual quota will be reduced to 650 thousand tons (for comparison, last year more than 14 million tons were shipped to Europe, or almost half, the annual duty-free quota is almost 11.2 million tons, the five-month quota is 4.7 million tons), that is, there will be practically no duty-free trade (for corn – ed.),” he added.

The sugar quota will also be significantly reduced – to 40.7 thousand tons. Last year, the total export of sweet goods set a record for this century – almost 750 thousand tons, of which about 40% was delivered to EU countries. In 2024, Ukraine ahead of schedule chose an annual quota of 262.6 thousand tons, and by June 5 it could count on duty-free 109 thousand tons. Other products will also be subject to restrictions – honey, poultry meat.

“According to expert estimates, the new trade conditions after the end of the “economic visa-free regime” could cost us -3.5 billion euros annually. A rather tangible blow – in 2025, the entire monthly commodity export will average 2.9 billion euros, and it is practically impossible to compensate for such losses in agricultural exports in other markets,” says Getmantsev.

Tags: corn, EU, sugar, restrictions, honey, Ukraine