World weather seems to be taking a break from some of the extremes seen (especially in middle latitudes) in recent years, but for how long?
Weather during much of the period from 2020 through 2024 took center stage, influencing the world’s commodity trade and threatening agriculture in South America, parts of Asia, Europe and especially North America. That seems to have temporarily subsided with improving conditions in each of these continents.
Drought that seriously threatened parts of southern Russia, Ukraine, western Kazakhstan and parts of Turkey last autumn has been eased by recent precipitation and mild temperatures. The environment may have allowed some new tillering of small grain crops, which could raise production potential. Indeed, recent Russian winter crop production estimates have been raised because of these conditions and there was no winterkill this year. The crop will still be smaller than usual, but not the disaster feared last autumn and winter.
South America’s weather also seems to have straightened out after multiple years of drought and delayed seasonal rains. Argentina started its spring season quite dry and, of course, Brazil’s early season rainfall was delayed last September and October, resulting in much concern over the future for soybeans and corn. Seasonal rains arrived in late October and were consistent during the November through January period in Brazil, ensuring a good soybean production year. Wet weather after that was blamed for delaying crop maturation and harvesting of soybeans and early-season corn, although much of that blame was misplaced since crops were not mature enough to be harvested had it not been raining.
The delayed start to soybean planting in Brazil also affected Safrinha corn planting, and some of that crop was planted three weeks late raising new fears that a much smaller crop would result. Rain in April was much better than expected in Brazil’s center south and center west production areas, giving that late-season corn crop an excellent opportunity to perform better than feared — just like that of the Black Sea region. The game is not over yet and trouble could return in June, but for now the outlook is much improved.
Argentina also experienced a return of more normal weather after a dry start to the spring and summer growing season. Early-season corn and sunseed were impacted by dryness and yields were down, but the soybean crop and the bulk of corn that was planted in November and December have been treated to well-timed rain prior to and during reproduction helping to bolster production.
North America weather has been drought-ridden from Mexico to Canada for the first half of this decade, resulting in tremendous production cuts in some years for both Mexico and Canada. Many of the US key crop areas are more in the central and eastern part of the nation and are missing out on the greater drought influence seen in western parts of the continent. However, late in the summer of 2024 dryness impacted much of the US crop region and drought evolved and was expanding during a part of the late winter and early spring, sparking concern over a more severe drought in key production areas this spring and summer.
Like the Black Sea region and South America, fears of another drought year in both Canada and the United States have been greatly reduced. Mexico, though, is still toughing out a very serious dryness problem in the central and north.
Much of the problem in North America and South America weather has been attributed to both the 22-year solar cycle and the Hunga Tonga Volcano that erupted in January 2022. This solar cycle is notorious for inducing much weather adversity around the world and often includes drought in Asia, North America and South America.
The Hunga Tonga Volcano then impacted the North and South American monsoons so that seasonal rains failed to evolve normally from late 2022 through much of 2024. The effects of the volcano have diminished greatly, resulting in better South America rain this summer, and the 22-year solar cycle adversity likely has ended with the recent arrival of the solar maximum. Mexico’s drought also is expected to be relieved later this year as the North America monsoon resumes more normally.
For now, world weather has mellowed out significantly — at least from a drought perspective. Recent rain in the lower Midwest, Delta and Tennessee River Basin in the United States was severe, and fieldwork will be delayed for a while this spring because of the wet pattern. At the same time, dryness in the US Plains has been eased by recent rain. In contrast, there has been some concern about dryness developing in east-central China. Most of the dryness in China has not persisted long enough to be an issue, but it will be monitored closely. Most likely, though, China will get timely rain in May and June to fix some of the dryness.
Meanwhile, southern Australia’s wheat, barley and canola planting season is about to begin and weather prospects are looking good for a favorable planting season. The same can be said of Canada’s Prairies weather, which is tilted toward a more beneficial moisture year, especially in the previously drought-stricken areas of the southwest.
Improved weather worldwide is most likely a short-term phenomenon, and weather volatility will resume later this year. However, the cause of weather adversity should not be from either the Hunga Tonga Volcano or the 22-year solar cycle.
The change in dominating weather features should reduce the size and number of weather problem areas around the world for the first part of this year, and the causes of weather adversity will have to be shifted to some other source because of the demise of these older influences.
Drew Lerner is senior agricultural meteorologist with World Weather, Inc. He may be reached at worldweather@bizkc.rr.com. World Weather, Inc. forecasts and comments pertaining to present, past and future weather conditions included in this report constitute the corporation’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
