Water shortage threatens Pakistan wheat crop and could increase imports

Pakistan is entering the Rabi season with the risk of a significant irrigation water shortage. According to the Indus River System Authority, water availability in Punjab and Sindh could be around 22% below requirements, creating risks for wheat production in the country’s main grain-growing regions.

Reservoir stocks at the end of September stood at 9.343 mln acre-feet, down from 13.214 mln acre-feet a year earlier. This is also below the ten-year average, raising concerns over irrigation availability during wheat planting and the growing season.

Water shortages could force farmers to rely more heavily on groundwater or accept lower yields. The situation is particularly important for Punjab and Sindh, which account for most of Pakistan’s wheat production.

Flour prices have already risen sharply. In September, they were 31.7% higher year-on-year in urban markets and 34.3% higher in rural areas. Additional pressure comes from last season’s weaker wheat harvest, which fell more than 2 mln tons short of the target.

If the new crop also underperforms, Pakistan may need additional wheat imports. The country has already purchased 365 thsd tons at $348.83/t, while the full 550 thsd ton import programme could cost around $192 mln.

Tags: wheat, imports, Pakistan