WASDE bullish corn, neutral soybeans, bearish wheat

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report was slightly bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans and slightly bearish for wheat, says an analyst.

DTN market analyst Rhett Montgomery said the USDA boosted its estimate for U.S. corn exports by 125 million bushels to a record 3.2 billion bu., up 12 per cent from last year.

That lowered ending stocks by 125 million bu. to 2.029 billion bu.

The world stocks-to-use ratio is eight per cent when China and the United States is taken out of the mix. That is tight.

“It’s a reason for optimism from an export demand standpoint,” he said during a Dec. 9 webinar.

One has to go back to 1998 to find a ratio less than that.

“It’s just a testament to the rampant demand for corn around the globe,” said Montgomery.

Why it Matters: Strong corn demand is needed to mop up a massive U.S. crop.

Brazil continues to see more domestic use from its ethanol and livestock sectors, which puts the U.S. in a good position to capitalize on global demand.

U.S. corn export inspections as of Dec. 4 were up 69 per cent from the same period in 2024-25.

“It is undeniably a very strong start,” he said.

There is also good domestic demand for the crop. The USDA is forecasting 5.6 billion bu. of demand from the ethanol sector in 2025-26, a three per cent increase over the previous year.

Cash corn prices in 2025 have closely followed the 2024 pattern, which ended the year with a little bull run.

The USDA made no changes to its U.S. soybean balance sheet.

Montgomery thinks the forecaster is waiting to see what happens with Chinese demand and with South American production prospects.

Argentina’s crop is halfway planted, while Brazil’s is more than 90 per cent complete.

Total South American production is forecast to increase by less than one per cent.

The USDA is forecasting 1.635 billion bu. of U.S. soybean exports in 2025-26, down 13 per cent from last year. That would be the smallest program in more than a decade.

Export inspections as of Dec. 4 were 45 per cent behind last year’s pace.

The USDA is forecasting 2.555 billion bu. of domestic crush. Montgomery thinks it could be 70 million bu. higher than that, which could partially offset the sluggish exports.

DTN’s national soybean cash price index has been slumping after a bull run in early November following the announcement of a trade deal between China and the U.S.

He thinks that is due to growing skepticism that China will live up to its commitments, plus good growing conditions in South America.

The 2025-26 price pattern is eerily similar to 2023-24, which is concerning because prices continued to grind lower that year.

The USDA also left the U.S. wheat balance sheet untouched with ending stocks at 901 million bu., the highest level in six years.

“It was a little frustrating not to see any acknowledgement of the very strong export pace thus far,” said Montgomery.

He thinks the USDA is being cautious due to ever-increasing world production, which will result in heightened global competition and slumping world prices.

The USDA added nine million tonnes to world production, which is up a whopping 21.6 million tonnes from the September WASDE report.

“It’s just a huge revision higher,” he said.

World wheat exports are now forecast at 218.71 million tonnes, up from 210.18 million tonnes last year.

U.S. wheat export inspections as of Dec. 4 were up 21 per cent from the same time last year.

Montgomery believes U.S. and Russian winter wheat area will contract due to lacklustre prices.

The USDA will issue its first U.S. winter wheat planting estimate in the next report, which is scheduled for Jan. 12.

Tags: prices, soybeans, ending stocks, Production, wheat, U.S., China, exports, corn, USDA, Brazil