Vegetable oil stocks could drop to 4-year low by end of season

The expected record soybean harvest in South America will put significant pressure on global prices for soybeans and other processed oilseed products. However, amid high consumption, stocks of 17 types of vegetable oils and fats could fall to a four-year low, according to analysts at Oil World (Germany).

To balance the market, increased soybean processing is needed, as global soybean stocks are expected to increase to a new high of 124-125 million tonnes in 2025/26. However, the stock-to-consumption ratio remains high at around 29%.

Consumption of all types of oils will increase by 7.4 million tonnes annually, leading to a reduction in stocks to a four-year low of 33.8 million tonnes by the end of the 2025/26 season.

Meal production will increase by 1.9 million tonnes amid increased processing, including increases in rapeseed and sunflower meal (approximately 0.7 million tonnes each). Global soybean meal production could reach a new record high of 287.1 million tonnes.

Analysts also note the 10-15% increase in prices for the main meal types in November, but consider this trend unsustainable as it is not supported by fundamental factors of supply and demand.

Tags: soybean, edible oils