USDA’s estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest forecast unchanged
USDA has reduced its forecast for world wheat production in the MY 2025/26 by 0.37 million tons to 841.8 million tons, the ministry’s February report states.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 221.96 million tons (+2.2 million tons). Experts have reduced the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 277.51 million tons (-0.74 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine is unchanged – 23 million tons, exports will be at the level of 14 million tons, ending stocks – 1.63 million tons (-0.3 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 54.01 million tons. The estimate for exports is also unchanged – 24.49 million tons, ending stocks – 25.34 million tons (+0.13 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 27,8 (+0,3) | 18 (+2) | 4,31 (+1,7) |
| Australia | 37 (0) | 27 (0) | 5,12 (+0,03) |
| Canada | 39,96 (0) | 29 (+1) | 5,89 (-0,43) |
| EU | 144 (0) | 31,5 (-1) | 15,66 (+1,45) |
| Russia | 89,5 (0) | 44 (0) | 14,69 (0) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in MY 2025/26 at 140.07 million tons, import estimate — 6 million tons, ending stocks — 124.85 million tons.
Further development of the grain and oilseed markets of Ukraine and the Black Sea region will be in the spotlight of the BLACK SEA GRAIN. KYIV conference, taking place on April 22–23 in Kyiv. The event will focus on strategic directions for the agricultural sector through 2030, including investments, energy independence, processing, and exports of high-value products.
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