USDA’s estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest forecast unchanged
USDA has reduced its forecast for world wheat production in the MY 2025/26 by 0.37 million tons to 841.8 million tons, the ministry’s February report states.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 221.96 million tons (+2.2 million tons). Experts have reduced the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 277.51 million tons (-0.74 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine is unchanged – 23 million tons, exports will be at the level of 14 million tons, ending stocks – 1.63 million tons (-0.3 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 54.01 million tons. The estimate for exports is also unchanged – 24.49 million tons, ending stocks – 25.34 million tons (+0.13 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Exports, mln tons | Stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 27,8 (+0,3) | 18 (+2) | 4,31 (+1,7) |
| Australia | 37 (0) | 27 (0) | 5,12 (+0,03) |
| Canada | 39,96 (0) | 29 (+1) | 5,89 (-0,43) |
| EU | 144 (0) | 31,5 (-1) | 15,66 (+1,45) |
| Russia | 89,5 (0) | 44 (0) | 14,69 (0) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in MY 2025/26 at 140.07 million tons, import estimate — 6 million tons, ending stocks — 124.85 million tons.
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