USDA revised its estimate of wheat exports from Ukraine
USDA has increased its forecast for world wheat production in MY 2025/26 by 8.92 million tons to 837.81 million tons, the ministry’s December report says.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 218.71 million tons (+1.5 million tons). Experts have increased the forecast for ending world wheat stocks to 274.87 million tons (+3.44 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine is unchanged at 23 million tons, exports will be at 14.5 million tons (-0.5 million tons), ending stocks at 1.93 million tons.
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 54.01 million tons. The export estimate is also unchanged at 24.49 million tons, ending stocks at 24.52 million tons.
Forecast for major wheat exporters for the MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Ending stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 24 (+2) | 14,5 (+0,5) | 4,52 (+0,5) |
| Australia | 37 (+1) | 27 (+1) | 5,09 (-0,5) |
| Canada | 39,96 (+2,96) | 28 (+1) | 6,32 (+0,96) |
| EU | 144 (+1,7) | 33 (0) | 13,71 (+0,7) |
| Russia | 87,5 (+1) | 44 (0) | 13,19 (+1) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in the MY 2025/26 at 140 million tons, imports estimated at 6 million tons, and ending stocks at 124.78 million tons.
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