USDA released first estimates of pig farming for 2025

 The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released the first estimates for the meat sector in 2025 at a global level. For pork, data from China are still a highlight, considering that it is the world’s top producer and consumer. In terms of imports, China is losing ground, in third place, behind Mexico and Japan, by a small margin. In addition to the Chinese data, it is worth paying attention to the data on Brazil’s main competitors in the world market, namely the USA and the European Union, besides the Philippines, which in recent months has been the largest importer of Brazilian pork. Regarding China, USDA estimated production in 2025 at 55.5 mln tons, which accounts for a 2.2% decline compared to the 56.75 mln tons expected by the end of 2024. The decrease in production is natural, considering that the country’s herd is shrinking, as a result of the crisis experienced by the sector over the last 2 years due to supply and high costs. The total final herd for 2025 was estimated at 396 mln head, down 2.22% from the 405 mln head estimated for the end of this year. If compared to the 452.56 mln head at the end of 2022, this accounts for a 12.50% decline.

The adjustment on the supply side has been taking place, which at a given moment will have a more significant impact on price formation in the interior of China. The major problem at the moment, which is expected to continue in 2025 and impact consumption, is the shaky economy. The Chinese government has adopted fiscal and monetary policies aimed to increase investment and household consumption. Last week, for example, the country’s central bank cut the one- and five-year interest rates. Furthermore, the market is awaiting details of recently announced measures, which involve injecting liquidity and expanding credit lines. However, it is worth noting that such policies take time to have an effect on the real economy, since public confidence is shaken and crises in key sectors, such as real estate, are still ongoing.

The USDA estimated Chinese pork consumption in 2025 at 55.5 mln tons, a 2.20% decrease compared to the 56.75 mln tons expected for this year. The decline in consumption ends up negatively impacting the need for imports. Imports in 2025 were projected at 1.4 mln tons, against 1.3 mln tons in 2024. It is worth noting that USDA revised the 2024 figure downward; in July, the estimate was 1.5 mln tons.

The Dalian futures contracts already reflect a negative perception among market agents regarding the evolution of live pig prices in China in the coming few months. On the 25th, the November/24 live pig contract closed at ¥16,985 per ton; the March/25 contract at ¥13,920 per ton; and the September/25 contract at ¥15,720 per ton (contracts pegged in yuan, the Chinese currency). In other words, prices tend to be weaker in the first half of next year and may find room for highs in the second half of 2025, with a tighter supply and possibly better demand due to a slightly more favorable economic environment, should the Chinese government’s measures be effective.

Brazil is likely to keep selling the current volumes to China next year, between 15 and 25 thousand tons, which is good. However, Brazil should seek to expand sales to other markets, such as Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Mexico, and others, which is essential to reduce our domestic availability. Competitive prices and quality are factors that Brazil will have to consider in its search for a larger share of sales in the global market.

Philippines: As previously mentioned, the Philippines has become Brazil’s main buyer in recent months. The country’s production suffered severely from African swine fever in 2019 and has not been able to recover yet, which has led to the need to increase the level of imports. Brazil currently ranks second in sales to the Philippines. Between January and August 2024, Brazil exported 127.975 thousand tons to this destination, while the United States exported 25.133 thousand tons. The European Union sold 246,517 thousand tons in the same period. USDA projected pork production in the Philippines at 1.06 mln tons in 2025, an increase of 1.92% compared to 1.04 mln tons in 2024. However, against the 2019 production of 1.585 mln tons, there is a decline of 33.12%. Consumption is expected to show a slight increase of 0.38%, from 1.573 mln tons this year to 1.579 mln tons in 2025. The Philippines is expected to import 510 thousand tons in 2025, a figure close to the expected 505 thousand tons for this year.

United States: US production is expected to increase in 2025, reaching 12.941 mln tons according to USDA, up 2.03% from 12.684 mln tons in 2024. With high production, local prices should remain at competitive levels, thus favoring exports, so much so that the US will consolidate its leadership in this regard in the world market, increasing its advantage in terms of volumes over the European Union. USDA estimated the country’s pork exports at 3.354 mln tons in 2025, compared to 3.244 mln tons this year, 3.39% higher. As for consumption, USDA estimates an increase of 1.43% for 2025, going from 9.991 mln tons to 10.134 mln tons.

European Union (EU): High costs should continue to limit the search for production growth in the bloc. There is an increase in regulations and laws aimed at animal welfare, environmental preservation, political issues and others, which impact producers’ investments, margins and prices throughout the chain until reaching the consumer’s table. Therefore, it is natural to expect a decline in the level of production, consumption and exports from the bloc. For EU pork production in 2025, USDA projected 20.9 mln tons, down 1.65% from 21.25 mln tons in 2024. For domestic consumption in 2025, it was estimated at 18.06 mln tons, down 1.63% from the 18.36 mln tons expected for this year. Exports from the bloc in 2024 were estimated at 3 mln tons and in 2025 at 2.95 mln tons, a decrease of 1.67%. Compared to the peak of shipments registered in 2020, when it reached 5.176 mln tons, the decline amounts to 43.01%. The European Union is still a major exporter due to its location and logistics to large markets in Asia, but high prices must lead to continued loss of market share in the world market in the coming years.

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Tags: USDA, estimates, pork, live pig, Brazil, The Philippines, meat sector, Mexico, prices, European Union, USA, imports, Market, Japan, China, consumption