USDA raises Australia’s wheat crop forecast to 31 mln tons

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for Australia’s 2026/27 wheat production to 31 mln tons, up 2 mln tons from its previous estimate. The upward revision reflects favorable early-season weather conditions, which improved expected yields while the harvested area remains unchanged at 11.8 mln hectares.

At the same time, USDA noted that production prospects remain highly dependent on spring rainfall. A key downside risk is the official declaration of an El Niño event by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which is expected to strengthen during the second half of 2026 and could bring drier-than-normal conditions to the country’s major wheat-growing regions.

Despite the upward revision, Australia’s wheat crop would still be about 14% smaller than the 36 mln tons harvested in 2025/26, which was the country’s second-largest wheat crop on record.

Even with lower production, Australian wheat exports in 2026/27 are forecast at 24.5 mln tons, supported by large carry-in stocks following weaker-than-expected export demand in the previous marketing year.

USDA projects domestic wheat consumption at 6.5 mln tons. Although this is lower than in the previous season, it remains well above historical averages. Feed demand, particularly from the beef cattle sector, continues to be the main driver of wheat consumption, supported by strong global demand for Australian beef.

Tags: Australia, wheat, crop forecast