USDA raises Argentina’s 2026/27 wheat crop forecast

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for Argentina’s 2026/27 wheat production to 21.6 mln tons, up 600,000 tons from its April estimate. The revision reflects a 200,000-hectare increase in planted area, with the harvested area now expected to reach 6.6 mln hectares.

USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) said improved weather in previously dry regions and lower production costs encouraged farmers to expand late wheat plantings. By mid-July, more than 90% of the planned area had already been sown.

Despite the upward revision, Argentina’s wheat crop is still projected to be 6.3 mln tons smaller than the record 2025/26 harvest. According to FAS, the decline reflects last season’s exceptionally high yields rather than weaker production prospects.

FAS also raised its forecast for Argentina’s 2026/27 wheat exports to 15.5 mln tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from the previous outlook. Meanwhile, the export estimate for the 2025/26 season was lowered to 18.5 mln tons, although it remains a record level for the country.

According to the agency, the lower protein content of last season’s wheat has reduced Argentina’s competitiveness in premium food wheat markets. In addition, Brazil, the country’s largest wheat buyer, is expected to import around 4–4.5 mln tons of Argentine wheat this season, slightly below its usual purchasing volumes.

Tags: wheat, Argentina, crop forecast