USDA lowered its estimate of wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia in MY 2024/25
The world wheat production in 2024/25 season is forecasted at 793.24 mln tonnes (+0.29 mln tonnes to the previous forecast). This is evidenced by the USDA report for January.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 212 million tons (-1.65 million tons). Experts raised the forecast of ending wheat stocks in the world to 258.82 million tons (+0.94 million tons).
The assessment of the wheat harvest forecast in Ukraine remained unchanged – 22.9 mln tonnes, while the export forecast was reduced by 0.5 mln tonnes to 16 mln tonnes. Ending stocks will be at 0.99 million tons (+0.2 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in the United States remained unchanged – 53.65 million tons, exports are estimated at 23.13 million tons, ending stocks – 21.71 million tons (+0.08 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2024/25:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Reserves, mln tons |
| Argentina | 17,5 (0) | 11,5 (0) | 3,5 (-0,03) |
| Australia | 32 (0) | 25 (0) | 2,61 (+0,03) |
| Canada | 34,96 (0) | 26 (0) | 4,52 (+0,09) |
| EU | 121,3 (0) | 29 (0) | 10,59 (+0,03) |
| Russia | 81,5 (0) | 46 (-1) | 9,24 (+1) |
USDA analysts forecast the wheat production in China in 2024/25 MY at 140.1 mln tonnes (+0.1 mln tonnes), the imports estimate – 10.5 mln tonnes (-0.5 mln tonnes), the ending stocks – 133.1 mln tonnes (-0.4 mln tonnes).
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