USDA increases harvest estimates for major wheat producers, no change for Ukraine

USDA forecasts world wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 828.89 million tons (+12.69 million tons compared to the previous forecast), according to the USDA report for November.

Note: The previous USDA report was in September, not October, due to the US government shutdown.

The forecast for world wheat exports is 217.21 million tons (+2.49 million tons). Experts have increased the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 271.43 million tons (+7.37 million tons).

The estimated wheat harvest forecast in Ukraine is 23 million tons, exports will be at 15 million tons, ending stocks – 1.93 million tons. That is, all indicators remained unchanged.

The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is 54.01 million tons (+1.56 million tons). Export estimate unchanged at 24.49 million tonnes, ending stocks at 24.52 million tonnes (+1.56 million tonnes).

Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:

USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in MY 2025/26 at 140 million tons, import estimate — 6 million tons, ending stocks — 124.78 million tons.

Tags: crop forecast, USDA Report, wheat