USDA increases estimate for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Sept. 12. The estimate for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol was revised up.

The current 2024-’25 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies and modest decline in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024-’25 are 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol in 2023-24.

The USDA currently predicts 5.45 billion bushels of corn will go to fuel ethanol production for 2024-’25, a forecast maintained from the August WASDE. The agency, however, increase its estimate for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol to 5.465 billion bushels, up from the August estimate of 5.45 billion bushels. Approximately 5.176 billion bushels of corn went to fuel ethanol production for 2022-’23.

Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for the European Union, Ghana, Russia, and Serbia partially offset by increases for Tanzania and Canada. EU corn production is lowered based on reductions for Romania and Hungary partially offset by an increase for France.

Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024-‘25 include larger corn exports for Tanzania and Canada with reductions for Russia, the EU, and Serbia. Corn imports are raised for the EU, Mexico, India, and Thailand but reduced for China, Canada, and Iran. Foreign corn ending stocks are cut 1.4 million tons to 256.1 million, mostly reflecting a reduction for China partly offset by an increase for Tanzania. World corn ending stocks, at 308.4 million tons, are down 1.8 million.

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