USDA forecasts sharp decline in wheat and barley production in Kazakhstan

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects a significant decline in grain production in Kazakhstan during the 2026/27 marketing year. The forecast was highlighted by Yevgeny Karabanov, a representative of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, citing a report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

According to the report, adverse weather conditions and market factors are expected to lead to a substantial reduction in wheat and barley production compared to the near-record harvests of the previous two seasons. Nevertheless, production volumes are still projected to remain within normal historical ranges.

The annual FAS report, published on April 29, states that delays in spring planting combined with an expected hot and dry growing season may reduce Kazakhstan’s wheat production to 14 million tons in 2026/27. By comparison, production was estimated at 18 million tons in 2025/26 and 18.57 million tons in 2024/25.

USDA analysts explained that colder-than-normal temperatures and average precipitation levels expected in April may leave soils partially frozen or excessively wet. This could delay fieldwork and slow preparations for the spring planting campaign, which traditionally begins in mid-May.

Kazakhstan’s wheat harvested area is forecast at 11.5 million hectares. This is nearly unchanged from last year but 1 million hectares below the level recorded two seasons ago. The reduction is largely attributed to farmers shifting acreage toward oilseed crops in search of higher profitability.

Due to the expected decline in production, Kazakhstan’s wheat exports in 2026/27 are projected to fall to 7.5 million tons, compared to 11 million tons a year earlier. Producers and traders are still expected to prioritize export sales over domestic market supplies.

The report also noted that imports of Russian wheat for processing and subsequent flour re-export are likely to remain minimal compared to previous years. The main export destinations for Kazakh wheat remain neighboring Central Asian countries, as well as Afghanistan and Azerbaijan.

Shipments of Kazakh wheat to China, traditionally one of the country’s major export markets, have declined sharply during the current marketing year because of congestion at border crossings and inspection delays.

Domestic wheat consumption is forecast slightly lower at 8.5 million tons, compared to 8.65 million tons in the previous season. Large carryover stocks are expected to help bridge the gap between supply and demand. Most wheat in Kazakhstan will continue to be used for food production, primarily flour milling, while the remainder will be utilized as feed grain.

FAS also noted that investments in new flour milling facilities have remained limited in recent years. At the same time, investment continues in deep-processing plants producing wheat-based starches, proteins, amino acids, and other byproducts for the food industry.

Kazakhstan’s barley production is forecast at 3.1 million tons in 2026/27, down from 3.6 million tons a year earlier. However, harvested barley area is expected to increase to 2.4 million hectares as farmers seek better returns after weaker wheat prices.

According to USDA, following two years of record wheat harvests that pressured prices downward, farmers intend to expand barley planting this spring in hopes of achieving stronger profitability.

Most of Kazakhstan’s barley production is feed quality and is primarily used in livestock and poultry feed rations. Total barley consumption is forecast at 1.7 million tons, compared to 1.9 million tons in 2025/26.

As domestic barley production declines, exports in 2026/27 are projected to decrease by 200,000 tons year-on-year to 1.5 million tons. Strong domestic demand for feed barley is also expected to limit export supplies.

Tags: corn, Kazakhstan, barley, wheat, crop forecast