USDA forecasts decline in barley and oat production in Ukraine, rye in growth
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects mixed dynamics in Ukraine’s grain production in the 2026/27 marketing year. At the same time, wheat output is projected at 23 million tonnes (-1.1 million tonnes), while corn is estimated at 30 million tonnes (-0.9 million tonnes), indicating a moderate overall decline in key grain production.
Barley production in Ukraine is forecast to decrease to 5.3 million tonnes, down 0.3 million tonnes from the previous season. Exports are also expected to decline to 2.1 million tonnes (-0.1 million tonnes), reflecting slightly weaker external demand and a tighter domestic supply balance.
Oat production is also set to decline. USDA estimates output at 380,000 tonnes, down 20,000 tonnes year-on-year. Exports, however, are expected to remain stable at around 35,000 tonnes, unchanged from the previous season.
Rye is the only crop showing positive dynamics. Production is forecast to increase to 270,000 tonnes (+60,000 tonnes), while exports may rise to 15,000 tonnes (+10,000 tonnes), indicating a gradual recovery of interest in the crop.
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