USDA forecasts China’s beef production to decline in 2026, while the pork sector will remain stable

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a contraction and stabilization scenario for China’s meat sector through 2026.

According to the latest report, beef production will decline significantly due to a steady decline in livestock numbers, while hog production will remain stable thanks to significant improvements in production efficiency on large farms. This scenario is unfolding against a backdrop of weak domestic demand and the introduction of new trade measures that will restrict the import of foreign products.

As for cattle, meat production is projected to decline to 7,600,000 tons in 2026. This decline is directly related to the reduction in livestock numbers due to herd liquidations and limited availability of breeding cows, which has led to a decline in calf production. Despite a slight price recovery expected in 2025, profitability for farmers remains very low, reducing incentives to rebuild herds or invest in high-quality genetics in the short term.

In contrast, pork production is expected to remain stable at 59,380,000 tons, consistent with the previous year. Although sow numbers are declining due to negative profitability, large producers have offset this decline by increasing productivity per sow and improving piglet survival rates. Furthermore, government policy in Beijing continues to focus on standardizing slaughter weights to prevent sharp fluctuations in domestic meat supply.

In 2026, meat imports will decline significantly due to new trade barriers and weak domestic consumption.

The US Department of Agriculture expects beef purchases to decline to 3.5 million tons due to the implementation of safeguard measures, including quotas and high tariffs on imported products.

Meanwhile, pork imports will decline to 1,100,000 tonnes under pressure from oversupply in the domestic market and anti-dumping duties imposed on meat from the European Union.

As for exports, China forecasts moderate growth, supplying 125,000 tonnes of pork and 20,000 tonnes of beef, primarily to the Hong Kong and Macau markets. This trade environment reflects a clear trend toward self-sufficiency in the face of global instability.

Demand for animal protein in the Asian giant continues to show signs of weakening, particularly in the restaurant and home-based sectors, where consumers have once again demonstrated high price sensitivity. Beef is particularly vulnerable in this economic climate, while pork consumption faces competition from cheaper alternatives such as eggs and soy products. The situation is exacerbated by the introduction of safeguard measures that will increase the cost of beef imports and anti-dumping duties imposed by the European Union on pork.

By the end of 2026, the livestock herd is expected to reach approximately 87.5 million head of cattle and 429.9 million head of pigs. Financial difficulties have led to the closure of less efficient farms and the cancellation of expansion projects, accelerating market consolidation toward larger, more technologically advanced operations. This structural adjustment is aimed at ensuring seed self-sufficiency and improving biosecurity—factors the USDA considers crucial for the stability of China’s meat supply amid global market uncertainty.

Tags: pork, Beef cattle, China