Stronger currencies and war-linked costs push rice prices higher in key export hubs

Global rice prices are rising across major exporting countries as stronger local currencies and increased costs linked to the Middle East conflict put upward pressure on markets. The trend is most evident in India, Vietnam, and Thailand.

In India, rice export prices have edged higher, supported by improving demand and a sharp appreciation of the rupee. Prices for 5% broken parboiled rice increased to $344–350 per ton from $341–348 a week earlier. Exporters note that the stronger currency is prompting traders to raise prices despite only a gradual recovery in demand.

In Vietnam, prices are also under pressure from rising costs. The 5% broken rice is currently offered at $375–380 per ton. Export activity has strengthened in recent weeks as buyers build stocks in anticipation of further price increases, particularly due to higher shipping and fertilizer costs linked to the conflict.

According to official data, Vietnam’s rice exports surged by 62.3% in March compared to February, reaching 1 million tons. However, total shipments in the first quarter of 2026 declined slightly by 1.2% year-on-year to 2.3 million tons.

In Thailand, prices rose more sharply to $410–440 per ton from $370–375 ранее. The increase is driven by higher fuel and transport costs, rising domestic prices, and a stronger baht. At the same time, demand remains subdued, with exports largely limited to regular buyers.

Additional pressure comes from supply constraints and developments in importing countries. In Bangladesh, rice prices remain elevated, while fuel shortages are disrupting farming activities, leaving many producers struggling to secure diesel for irrigation during a critical stage of the growing season.